Jamaica

Jamaica

Caribbean

Repository: 70 items

Jamaica document repository

Food Stability in the Caribbean

2024
Book

Food stability relates to the extent to which food is uninterruptedly available, accessible and properly utilized over time, at the national and household level. It is impacted by natural (natural disasters, pandemics and pests), as well as man-made factors (conflicts, praedial larceny, environmental degradation and economic shocks). The Caribbean region is particularly vulnerable to the impacts of weather-related natural disasters, exacerbated by climate change in the last 20 years, and manifested in significant losses in GDP, loss of livelihoods, agricultural production capacity and increased imports of food. The Caribbean however, has had little experience with agricultural insurance, except for some export crops in Jamaica and for banana in the Eastern Caribbean, due to the predominance by small players and multiple cropping in the region. At the same time, all of these crop insurance schemes ceased to exist in the face of more frequent and intense adverse weather episodes in recent years. Caribbean governments have therefore been paying greater attention to comprehensive risk management planning encompassing preparedness, prevention, response and recovery. Within this framework, emphasis is being placed on ex-ante risk financing strategies for the agricultural sector, such as parametric agricultural insurance models, as in Jamaica, and the Caribbean Catastrophe Risk Insurance Facility, which is pooling the risks and resources across countries, to provide quick budget support to countries in times of disasters. The region continues to search for innovative solutions, such as the use of debt swaps to fund investments in building resilience.

Assessment of consumers’ knowledge, attitude and perception of the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on household food security in Caribbean Small Island Developing States

2023
Journal Article

<sec><title>Introduction</title><p>The COVID-19 pandemic and recent international crises including the Russia-Ukraine conflict have resulted in significant disruptions along multiple segments of the Caribbean’s agri-food system, thus compromising regional food security. These impacts are still ongoing with the potential to worsen. The aim of this study was to investigate the influence of sociodemographic factors on consumers’ knowledge of food security along with their attitude, and perception towards the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on household food security in the Caribbean Small Island Developing States.</p></sec><sec><title>Method</title><p>A cross-sectional on-line survey was conducted between January 1 and November 30, 2021. The sampled population included consumers from nine Caribbean countries (Trinidad and Tobago, Barbados, Jamaica, Antigua and Barbuda, Dominica, Grenada, St. Kitts and Nevis, St. Lucia, and St. Vincent and the Grenadines). Survey data were analyzed using Chi-square, one way analysis of variance, and univariate logistic regression.</p></sec><sec><title>Results and discussion</title><p>A total of 237 consumers participated in the survey. Consumers were generally knowledgeable about food security and had favorable attitudes and perceptions of the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on household food security. Significant associations (<italic>p</italic>&lt;0.05) and significant differences (<italic>p</italic>&lt;0.05) were obtained for consumers’ knowledge, attitude and perception among the sociodemographic variables assessed. The results suggest that there were different levels of vulnerability to food insecurity associated with the COVID-19 pandemic, particularly among economically vulnerable households. Policies that support disadvantaged households and ensure adequate employment opportunities are important to support Caribbean consumers throughout and post the COVID-19 pandemic recovery.</p></sec>

Islands at Risk - Analyzing Resource-use Dynamics from a Socio-metabolic Research Perspective

2023
Thesis

Our resource-use dynamics have contributed significantly to the improvement in global material standards of living through the provisioning of essential societal services. Nonetheless, these dynamics have also impacted on the already limited natural resource-base of the Earth system on which we depend. Moreover, the characteristics of a global self-perpetuating resource-use linearity, the growing demand for finite raw materials, the high waste generation that remains unrecovered, and the increasing negative effects of climate change further exacerbate the Earth system’s vulnerabilities and exposure to risks. As such, the resource-use dynamics is posited as an important example of complex systems in need for better understanding, particularly in advancing towards sustainability and build system’s resilience. For resource-stressed settings like small island nations, the analysis of these complex systems is not only crucial, but urgent. Small Island Developing States are often characterized by sustainability challenges like limited resource-bases, reduced waste absorption capacity, a strong dependency on external resources to meet their basic needs, geographic isolation from markets which impact connectivity and resource supply, and natural and built environment that is progressively been threatened by the negative effects of climate change, which amplify the pre-existing vulnerabilities and risks for these territories. Thus, dealing with sustainability would require a deeper understanding of the interactions and trade-offs between the resource-use dynamics and the influences that internal/external factors like climate change have over these. By doing so, the system will have the ability to both contribute to global environment change, but also determine their own vulnerability or resilience to those changes. This thesis analyzes resource-use dynamics from a socio-metabolic research perspective in the context of small islands to enhance resource security and build system’s resilience, by looking into the way in which natural resources are interconnected, influenced, and managed. The analysis is spread across three main empirical Chapters, each of which contribute to advancing the arguments that arise from this work. First, in Chapter 3, the thesis analyzes the shifting resource-baselines of water, energy, and food, emphasizing the intra- and interconnected nature between essential resources and socio-metabolic risk, which builds the foundations for deeper analysis on current and future sustainability in small islands. Then, in Chapter 4, the thesis analyzes and identifies the size and make-up of material and energy flows specific to an individual case study, bringing important quantitative and qualitative insights on the potentials that reconfigured resource-use patterns may offer to minimizing or reducing socio-metabolic risk in small islands. Next, in Chapter 5, the thesis analyzes the role that critical material stocks play in driving resource-use and in furthering sustainable development, emphasizing climate change adaptation strategies to build system’s resilience. The overall framework of this thesis has demonstrated how a better understanding of resource-use dynamics may offer an opportunity to achieve resource security and self-reliance as a resilience building measure in the island context. Finally, this thesis encourages for the development and application of holistic and long-term resource management strategies through inclusive, climate and nature-based solutions that consider the trade-offs and synergies between different resource-use dynamics.

Developing Organizational Capacity for Ecosystem Stewardship and Livelihoods in Caribbean Small-Scale Fisheries (StewardFish)

2022
Report

The Developing Organizational Capacity for Ecosystem Stewardship and Livelihoods in Caribbean Small Scale Fisheries ( StewardFish ) project recognized that there were a number of challenges hindering the engagement of fisherfolk and their organizations in the sustainable management of fisheries in the Caribbean region, including limited capacity of fisherfolk organizations to participate effectively in fisheries governance; insufficient capacity and knowledge of ecosystem stewardship practices for fisheries sustainability among fisherfolk ; inadequate public awareness of ecosystem approaches to support best practices and ensure compliance; inadequate documentation of successful experiences and practices for sustainable fisheries livelihood strategies; and inadequate management and collaboration mechanisms to support fisherfolk leaders in monitoring and evaluating projects. In addressing these constraints, the project supported the implementation of the ten year Strategic Action Programme (SAP) for the Sustainable Management of the Shared Living Marine Resources of the Caribbean and North Brazil Shelf Large Marine Ecosystems (CLME+) in Antigua and Barbuda, Barbados, Belize, Guyana, Jamaica, Saint Lucia, and Saint Vincent and the Grenadines by empowering fisherfolk throughout fisheries value chains to engage in resource management, decision making processes and sustainable livelihoods, with strengthened institutional support at all levels.

How big is circular economy potential on Caribbean islands considering e-waste?

2021
Journal Article

While excessive use of electronics and the resulting e-waste is a global problem, the situation is even more acute on small islands as bounded systems and the enormous costs associated with shipping it elsewhere. Dumping e-waste on islands can cause pollution of ground and surface water and degradation of coastal and marine resources. Yet, research that supports island governments to deal with their e-waste is scarce. This paper explores the viability of a circular economy (CE) and asks whether this could be a promising solution for islands to tackle their e-waste challenge. In pursuit of this aim, the CE potential of e-waste is analyzed on five Caribbean islands: Aruba, Barbados, Grenada, Jamaica, and Trinidad and Tobago. The resource quantity of e-waste generated between 2020 and 2025 is estimated, and the economic value is assessed for the embedded materials. Using sensitivity analyses, three scenarios of exploitable e-waste and their potential economic values were calculated, considering the recovery of 20%, 50%, or 100% of e-waste stocked on the islands between 2001 and 2019. Expert interviews were conducted to identify existing e-waste management practices, if any. The results reveal that more than 317.4 kt of secondary materials would be available for recovery, comprising a significant amount of base and precious metals, such as aluminum, copper, silver, gold, and palladium. The estimated economic value of these materials is estimated to be more than $546 million. However, according to the sensitivity analysis, if these islands had started the recovery of resources in early 2001, this value would almost triple to $1,430 million - equivalent to nearly 30% of the total gross domestic product (GDP) from mining and quarrying in the entire Caribbean community, from just these five islands. Due to economies of scale that limit smaller nations, regional co-operations and initiating industrial symbiosis would be essential for desirous islands to shift to a CE. CE can support resource self-sufficiency on islands and bring several social, environmental, and economic benefits. This research is the first to provide an island-specific perspective to help decision-makers manage e-waste flows by including participatory CE implementation methods.

Past, Present, and Future Vulnerability to Dengue in Jamaica: A Spatial Analysis of Monthly Variations

2020
Journal Article

Over the years, Jamaica has experienced sporadic cases of dengue fever. Even though the island is vulnerable to dengue, there is paucity in the spatio-temporal analysis of the disease using Geographic Information Systems (GIS) and remote sensing tools. Further, access to time series dengue data at the community level is a major challenge on the island. This study therefore applies the Water-Associated Disease Index (WADI) framework to analyze vulnerability to dengue in Jamaica based on past, current and future climate change conditions using three scenarios: (1) WorldClim rainfall and temperature dataset from 1970 to 2000; (2) Climate Hazard Group InfraRed Precipitation with Station data (CHIRPS) rainfall and land surface temperature (LST) as proxy for air temperature from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) for the period 2002 to 2016, and (3) maximum temperature and rainfall under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 climate change scenario for 2030. downscaled at 25 km based on the Regional Climate Model, RegCM4.3.5. Although vulnerability to dengue varies spatially and temporally, a higher vulnerability was depicted in urban areas in comparison to rural areas. The results also demonstrate the possibility for expansion in the geographical range of dengue in higher altitudes under climate change conditions based on scenario 3. This study provides an insight into the use of data with different temporal and spatial resolution in the analysis of dengue vulnerability.

Pathways to climate change mitigation and stable energy by 100% renewable for a small island: Jamaica as an example

2020
Journal Article

This paper examines a pathway for small islands to replace fossil fuels by renewable sources, such as wind and solar, up to 100% to economically achieve energy security and satisfy The Paris Agreement to limit temperature rise as close as possible to 1.5 °C, in an economically beneficial manner. Using Jamaica, as an example, it is shown that the introduction of intermittent renewable energy to an island grid, which is electrically isolated, relying totally on itself for backup, causes serious frequency fluctuations and load shedding. Simulations show that a Battery Energy Storage System (BESS) using Li-ion batteries can be employed to economically overcome these problems. It is also noted that the cost of batteries with longer discharge capacity is on the decline and their use is expected to be become economical in about 10 years. Looking at the reported pathway to satisfy The Paris Agreement, a 2-phase pathway is suggested. In the Phase 1 (2020–2030) 30% integration of intermittent renewables with BESS backup can be implemented in a manner that is not economically burdensome whilst the remaining fossil fuel system can provide the firm energy needed. In Phase 2 (2030–2055), more renewables can be implemented, provided sufficient long term storage, including batteries, can be added to provide firm energy. By 2030 the cost of such storage is expected to fall resulting in increased deployment without a financial burden to the islands. Ideally, during the period 2020 to 2055, there should be no new additions of fossil fuel plants and retiring plants should be replaced by renewable energy plants; although an account is necessary for plants already in the planning and development stages. The leeway period of 2020–2030 should be used for the preparation and planning of adding up to 100% renewables in all sectors.

The self-(in)sufficiency of the Caribbean: Ecosystem services potential Index (ESPI) as a measure for sustainability

2020
Journal Article

Sustainability of Small Island Developing States (SIDS) is a growing concern particularly under climate change scenarios. Under the Ecosystem Service (ES) framework, we analyse the performance of five Caribbean countries (Cuba, Dominican Republic, Haiti, Jamaica, and Trinidad and Tobago) regarding environmental and socioeconomic indicators, specifying how far each country is from an ideal threshold (Boundary Point – BP). Furthermore, the analysis provides an estimation of the potential of each country to deliver ecosystem services. Building on an existing ecosystem service’s value database, we developed the Ecosystem Services Potential Index (ESPI) to compare possibilities in each country. Linking the ESPI of each country to its distance to the BP (Boundary Point Distance – BPD), helps us detecting shortcomings and providing recommendations on what could be improved to move towards achieving self-sufficiency with high quality of life at the lowest environmental cost. However, none of the countries analyzed fall within the ideal situation where human needs are met without overexploitation of ecosystems. Nonetheless, Dominican Republic, Cuba, and Jamaica are the countries closest to achieve that goal. We conclude our findings with some recommendations to adopt Ecosystem-based Adaptation (EbA) as a leverage point towards self-sufficiency in the Caribbean.

Can the Caribbean Live within the Doughnut? Environmental and Social Performance of Five Island Nations

2019
Thesis

This study examines the social and environmental performance of five Caribbean nations (Trinidad & Tobago, Dominican Republic, Jamaica, Haiti and Cuba) using the Safe and Just Space (SJS) framework proposed by Kate Raworth (2012). For each country, values for 11 social and 7 environmental indicators are calculated. This is the first study that uses the Safe and Just Space framework for the Caribbean region, and with a focus on small island states. Johan Rockström and colleagues first proposed the Planetary Boundaries (PB) framework in 2009, where they identify the urgency to remain within nine biophysical planetary boundaries if humanity must continue to thrive. The authors claim that by crossing these boundaries we would significantly risk our own survival and cause large-scale, abrupt or irreversible environmental changes. In 2012, Kate Raworth added the social dimension to the Planetary Boundaries framework, which she defines as the Safe and Just Space (SJS). She argues that humanity must not only remain within biophysical thresholds, but as part of the sustainability mandate, also aspire to achieve quality of life where no one is left behind. In other words, how can humanity achieve an acceptable quality of life at the lowest environmental costs, or in Raworth’ s words, “can we live within the Doughnut?” Drawing on the SJS framework, this study calculates 11 social and 7 environmental indicators for the 5 Caribbean nations to assess their sustainability performance. To this end, the method proposed by O’Neill et al. (2018) is taken as a starting point. The 11 social indicators include Life Satisfaction, Social Support, Nutrition, Assess to Electricity (Energy), Access to Improved Sanitation, Health and Life Expectancy, Income, Equality, Democratic Quality, Education and Employment. The 7 environmental indicators are: Climate Change (represented by CO₂ emission), Phosphorous Flows, Nitrogen Flows, Blue Water, eHANPP (embodied Human Appropriated Net Primary Production), Ecological Footprint and Material Footprint. The results suggest that none of these five nations is in an ideal position within the doughnut of the environmentally safe and socially just space. Four of the nations (Trinidad Tobago, Dominican Republic, Jamaica and Cuba) exceed at least four out of seven planetary boundaries and none of them achieve more than half of the social outcomes. Haiti exceeds the boundary for CO₂ emission and functions slightly under the eHANPP boundary (that measures the intensity of use of biomass), but achieves none of the 11 social outcomes. While the relationship between the environmental and social variables is multi-metric, a few patterns and correlation between environment and social indicators can be observed. In general, the achievement of most social outcomes such as access to electricity, sanitation, income, nutrition, employment, education, social support and life satisfaction are positively related to emission or material consumption, such as CO₂ emission, especially from emission from fossil fuels, phosphorous flow, eHANPP, ecological footprint and material footprint. Based on performances of these five nations, the achievement of social outcomes is not closely related to blue water as one of the environmental performance indicator. There does not exist clear positive relationship between environmental indicators and social indicators such as healthy life expectancy, equality and democratic quality.

Assessing the implications of a 1.5 °C temperature limit for the Jamaican agriculture sector

2018
Journal Article

Despite recent calls to limit future increases in the global average temperature to well below 2 °C, little is known about how different climatic thresholds will impact human society. Future warming trends have significant global food security implications, particularly for small island developing states (SIDS) that are recognized as being among the most vulnerable to global climate change. In the case of the Caribbean, any significant change in the region’s climate is likely to have significant adverse effects on the agriculture sector. This paper explores the potential biophysical impacts of a + 1.5 °C warming scenario on several economically important crops grown in the Caribbean island of Jamaica. Also, it explores differences to a > 2.0 °C warming scenario, which is more likely, if the current policy agreements cannot be complied with by the international community. We use the ECOCROP niche model to estimate how predicted changes in future climate could affect the growing conditions of several commonly cultivated crops from both future scenarios. We then discuss some key policy considerations for Jamaica’s agriculture sector, specifically related to the challenges posed to future adaptation pathways amidst growing climate uncertainty and complexity. Our model results show that even an increase less than + 1.5 °C is expected to have an overall negative impact on crop suitability and a general reduction in the range of crops available to Jamaican farmers. This observation is instructive as increases above the + 1.5 °C threshold would likely lead to even more irreversible and potentially catastrophic changes to the sustainability of Jamaica’s agriculture sector. The paper concludes by outlining some key considerations for future action, paying keen attention to the policy relevance of a + 1.5 °C temperature limit. Given little room for optimism with respect to the imminent changes that SIDS will need to confront in the near future, broad-based policy engagement by stakeholders in these geographies is paramount, irrespective of the climate warming scenario.

Characterizing heat stress on livestock using the temperature humidity index (THI)—prospects for a warmer Caribbean

2018
Journal Article

There is an urgent need to mitigate climate change-induced heat stress in livestock and poultry in the Caribbean, given the deleterious effects it has on food and nutrition security. The temperature humidity index (THI) was used to assess the potential for heat stress on four types of livestock and poultry (broiler and layer chickens, pigs and ruminants) for three different agro-ecological locations in Jamaica. The THI was formulated specifically to each livestock type and was examined for 2001–2012 for seasonal and annual patterns of variability. Differences in THI were observed between summer (July to September) and winter (December to February) with some moderation due to agro-ecological location. Our results suggest that animals in ambient field conditions in Jamaica may already be experiencing considerable periods of heat stress even during the relatively cooler northern hemisphere winter months. Future patterns of heat stress relative to a 1961–1990 baseline were derived from a regional climate model when mean global surface air temperature is 1.5, 2.0 and 2.5 °C above pre-industrial levels. At 1.5 °C, marked increases were noted in THI and almost persistent year-round heat stress is projected for Caribbean livestock. Conditions will be exacerbated at the higher global warming states. Possible response strategies such as cooling technologies are discussed.

Climate change impacts on critical international transportation assets of Caribbean Small Island Developing States (SIDS): the case of Jamaica and Saint Lucia

2018
Journal Article

This contribution presents an assessment of the potential vulnerabilities to climate variability and change (CV & C) of the critical transportation infrastructure of Caribbean Small Island Developing States (SIDS). It focuses on potential operational disruptions and coastal inundation forced by CV & C on four coastal international airports and four seaports in Jamaica and Saint Lucia which are critical facilitators of international connectivity and socioeconomic development. Impact assessments have been carried out under climatic conditions forced by a 1.5 °C specific warming level (SWL) above pre-industrial levels, as well as for different emission scenarios and time periods in the twenty-first century. Disruptions and increasing costs due to, e.g., more frequent exceedance of high temperature thresholds that could impede transport operations are predicted, even under the 1.5 °C SWL, advocated by the Alliance of Small Island States (AOSIS) and reflected as an aspirational goal in the Paris Climate Agreement. Dynamic modeling of the coastal inundation under different return periods of projected extreme sea levels (ESLs) indicates that the examined airports and seaports will face increasing coastal inundation during the century. Inundation is projected for the airport runways of some of the examined international airports and most of the seaports, even from the 100-year extreme sea level under 1.5 °C SWL. In the absence of effective technical adaptation measures, both operational disruptions and coastal inundation are projected to increasingly affect all examined assets over the course of the century.

A social justice framing of climate change discourse and policy: Adaptation, resilience and vulnerability in a Jamaican agricultural landscape

2016
Journal Article

It is now widely recognized that climate change is likely to have detrimental impacts across the Caribbean region, with the burden likely to fall disproportionately on the most vulnerable segments of society. It is therefore an appropriate time to ask whether the frameworks that lie behind climate change discourse and policy are consistent with the demands of social and environmental justice. In this paper, we use climate justice as a lens for evaluating three prominent frameworks for addressing climate change, those of adaptation, resilience, and vulnerability. Each of these discursive frameworks, we argue, can contribute to our understanding of climate change, but they do not all incorporate justice concerns to the same degree. In order to illustrate this, we examine the justice implications of using each of the three frameworks to assess a case study of agricultural transformation in Southwestern Jamaica. Farmers in this region have adapted to changing climate conditions in a variety of ways, including the use of new agricultural technology. The ability of many farmers to take advantage of such innovations, however, is constrained by the underlying landscape of vulnerability within the region. After interpreting this example from the perspectives of adaptation, resilience and vulnerability, we conclude that all three paradigms are capable of calling attention to climate justice issues, but only in the vulnerability perspective are such issues intrinsic. We believe, therefore, that a greater attention to vulnerability within Caribbean climate policy holds the potential to advance the goals of climate justice within the region.

Climate Change in the Caribbean: A Multi-Scalar Account of Context and Inequality

2016
Journal Article

<p>Vulnerability is an indispensable component of climate justice discussions, especially as it functions to identify the worst off in procedures and distribution framed in a Rawlsian interpretation of justice as fairness. Yet, vulnerability is a term replete in varying interpretations and analytical approaches; and choices in interpretation and approach are consequential to policy-making. Recent policy is constructed with disproportionate reference to biophysical conceptions of climate change, which, albeit useful, can lead to an overlook of the geographic and social context of vulnerability. In addition, when considering that this context is differentiated between and within scales, it is apparent that a multi-scalar framework provides a comprehensive approach to vulnerability studies. Small island developing states (SIDS) are often noted as being among the most vulnerable to climate change. This work assesses that claim through a multi-scalar examination of the political, geographic, and socio-economic conditions that engender vulnerability. What starts as a global scale case study of the political context of SIDS vulnerability is then focused upon a regional study of the socio-economic and geographic context of Caribbean, the most tourism-intensive economy of the world; the latter examination is pursued further with a national scale analysis of contextual vulnerability in Jamaican tourism and agriculture, referencing to local scale examples of adaptive capacity. By this multi-scalar framework, justice and contextual vulnerability are revealed to be inextricable, and a re-evaluation of how these terms are operationalized in policy is suggested.</p>

Socioeconomic metabolism of Biomass in Jamaica in the Context of Trade and National Food Security: A time series biophysical analysis (1961-2013)

2016
Thesis

This thesis presents a novel study on the historical evolution of socioeconomic metabolism of biomass in Jamaica in the context of trade and national food security. The goal of this study was to provide empirical insight into the structure of Jamaica biomass system by analyzing biomass material flows (domestic extraction, imports, and exports) from 1961 to 2013, and on this basis establish a link to the issue of national food security in Jamaica. A biomass material database in time series was constructed for Jamaica based on Eurostat methodological guidelines and general principles of economy-wide material flow account and analysis (EW-MFA). The constructed database allowed for the characterization of biomass production and consumption using the calculated material flow indicators- domestic extraction (DE), domestic consumption (DMC) and physical trade balance (PTB). The degree of import dependency was also calculated. To establish a link between patterns of biomass metabolism, trade and national food security, the scope of MFA was expanded to conduct a time series analysis of national food availability and progress towards food self-sufficiency based on analysis of dietary energy supply (DES) and dietary energy production (DEP) in Jamaica. Results obtained revealed a declining trend in both metabolic scale and metabolic rate of biomass use in Jamaica. MFA calculated indicators showed two alternating phases of growth and decline in the evolution of biomass use- peak growth (1966 and 1996) and steep decline (1981 and 2006). Primary crops dominated DE (48%) and DMC (47%). Cereals (74%) dominated physical imports flows and export flows were dominated by sugar cane (76%). Jamaica agro-food system is characterized by export oriented production as the share of mainstay food crops in overall primary crop extraction was less than 10%. A high food Import dependency ratio was observed. Food energy availability has significantly improved since 1961 from 1740 kcal/cap/day to 2470 kcal/cap/day in 2013. Jamaica is yet to achieve food self-sufficiency as DEP remains critically below the minimum dietary energy requirement threshold for Jamaica. This study contributes to the growing body of research on material flow analysis and socioeconomic metabolism. It offers a starting point for methodological enhancement of the MFA framework towards adapting it for food security studies.

Socioeconomic metabolism of Biomass in Jamaica in the Context of Trade and National Food Security: A time series biophysical analysis (1961-2013).

2016
Thesis

This thesis presents a novel study on the historical evolution of socioeconomic metabolism of biomass in Jamaica in the context of trade and national food security. The goal of this study was to provide empirical insight into the structure of Jamaica biomass system by analyzing biomass material flows (domestic extraction, imports, and exports) from 1961 to 2013, and on this basis establish a link to the issue of national food security in Jamaica. A biomass material database in time series was constructed for Jamaica based on Eurostat methodological guidelines and general principles of economy-wide material flow account and analysis (EW-MFA). The constructed database allowed for the characterization of biomass production and consumption using the calculated material flow indicators- domestic extraction (DE), domestic consumption (DMC) and physical trade balance (PTB). The degree of import dependency was also calculated. To establish a link between patterns of biomass metabolism, trade and national food security, the scope of MFA was expanded to conduct a time series analysis of national food availability and progress towards food self-sufficiency based on analysis of dietary energy supply (DES) and dietary energy production (DEP) in Jamaica. Results obtained revealed a declining trend in both metabolic scale and metabolic rate of biomass use in Jamaica. MFA calculated indicators showed two alternating phases of growth and decline in the evolution of biomass use- peak growth (1966 and 1996) and steep decline (1981 and 2006). Primary crops dominated DE (48%) and DMC (47%). Cereals (74%) dominated physical imports flows and export flows were dominated by sugar cane (76%). Jamaica agro-food system is characterized by export oriented production as the share of mainstay food crops in overall primary crop extraction was less than 10%. A high food Import dependency ratio was observed. Food energy availability has significantly improved since 1961 from 1740 kcal/cap/day to 2470 kcal/cap/day in 2013. Jamaica is yet to achieve food self-sufficiency as DEP remains critically below the minimum dietary energy requirement threshold for Jamaica. This study contributes to the growing body of research on material flow analysis and socioeconomic metabolism. It offers a starting point for methodological enhancement of the MFA framework towards adapting it for food security studies.

Future climate of the Caribbean from a super-high-resolution atmospheric general circulation model

2013
Journal Article

Present-day (1979–2003) and future (2075–2099) simulations of mean and extreme rainfall and temperature are examined using data from the Meteorological Research Institute super-high-resolution atmospheric general circulation model. Analyses are performed over the 20-km model grid for (1) a main Caribbean basin, (2) sub-regional zones, and (3) specific Caribbean islands. Though the model’s topography underestimates heights over the eastern Caribbean, it captures well the present-day spatial and temporal variations of seasonal and annual climates. Temperature underestimations range from 0.1 °C to 2 °C with respect to the Japanese Reanalysis and the Climatic Research Unit datasets. The model also captures fairly well sub-regional scale variations in the rainfall climatology. End-of-century projections under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change SRES A1B scenario indicate declines in rainfall amounts by 10–20 % for most of the Caribbean during the early (May–July) and late (August–October) rainy seasons relative to the 1979–2003 baselines. The early dry season (November–January) is also projected to get wetter in the far north and south Caribbean by approximately 10 %. The model also projects a warming of 2–3 °C over the Caribbean region. Analysis of future climate extremes indicate a 5–10 % decrease in the simple daily precipitation intensity but no significant change in the number of consecutive dry days for Cuba, Jamaica, southern Bahamas, and Haiti. There is also indication that the number of hot days and nights will significantly increase over the main Caribbean basin.

Caribbean precipitation: Review, model and prospect

2008
Journal Article

The study of Caribbean climate pre-1990 focused almost exclusively on attempts to link spatial patterns in climatic variables to physical processes. Much of this research assumed a 'simple' regional climate, warm year round with a wet season dominated by tropical cyclones, but researchers soon found that a precipitation regionalization of the Caribbean was not as straightforward and simple. Consequently, a satisfactory understanding of the regional precipitation climate has eluded researchers for much of the second half of the twentieth century. Recently, with the increased availability and quality of satellite and precipitation data, researchers have begun to use gridded data sets to identify the spatial boundaries of the bimodal precipitation region and the atmospheric processes associated with the two maxima and minimum in precipitation. The fi ndings of these most recent studies can be combined to construct a fi ve part (North Atlantic high pressure, low level Caribbean jet, subsidence caused by Central America convection, basin wide increased wind shear, and divergence around Jamaica) conceptual Caribbean precipitation model that begins to address spatial variability in the bimodal structure of annual rainfall and the development of the midsummer minimum in precipitation. Such a regional precipitation climate model provides hypotheses to be tested and investigated in future research. Further, researchers must work towards a more effective and clear communication of the bimodal nature of Caribbean precipitation and the associated summer decrease in precipitation, integrate upper air analysis into the current working hypotheses, and further examine the interannual to interdecadal variability of the Caribbean midsummer drought for prediction purposes.