Climatic Change

Drought is known as a “creeping disaster” because drought impacts are usually noticed months or years after a drought begins. In the Pacific Island Countries and Territories (PICTs), there is almost no ability to tell when a drought will begin or end, especially for droughts other than meteorological droughts. Monitoring, forecasting and managing drought in the PICTs is complex due to the variety of different ways droughts occur, and the diverse direct and indirect causes and consequences of drought, across the PICT region. For example, the impacts of drought across the PICTs vary significantly depending on (i) the type of drought (e.g. meteorological drought or agricultural drought); (ii) the location (e.g. high islands versus atolls); (iii) socioeconomic conditions in the location affected by drought; and (iv) cultural attitudes towards the causes of drought (e.g. a punishment from God versus a natural process that is potentially predictable and something that can be managed). This paper summarises what is known and unknown about drought impacts in the PICTs and provides recommendations to guide future research and investment towards minimising the negative impacts of droughts when they inevitably occur in the PICTs.

As one of the lowest-lying island nation states in the world, the Republic of the Marshall Islands is vulnerable to sea level rise, flooding and the associated impacts on soil and water salinity. Persistent drought is further affecting agricultural production and access to drinking water, and heat stress is increasingly common. The number of Marshallese people residing in the USA has increased rapidly from 6650 in 2000 to an estimated 30,000 in 2018. While we know that climate change is already affecting the Marshall Islands and that there are significant migration flows, we do not know to what extent people already migrate because of climate change. This paper addresses this gap and presents findings from interdisciplinary fieldwork in the Marshall Islands and destination areas in the USA. The research team conducted a survey (N = 278), focus group discussions, expert interviews and a geo-spatial analysis of flood extent and migration rates to study the relationship between climatic events, ecosystem services and migration. The results show that respondents primarily cite education, health care, work and family visits as migration drivers, and only few mention climate impacts or environmental change. However, respondents do identify impacts of climate change on their livelihoods, health and safety, and the study finds significant correlations between climate impacts, trends in ecosystem services and migration propensities at household level. Furthermore, 62% of Marshallese respondents in the USA indicated that climate change affects their decision to return to Marshall Islands in the future.

This paper comments on the applicability of the global indicators of climate change adaptation policy drivers contained in Berrang-Ford et al. (2014) (Climatic Change, 124(1–2), 441–450. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-014-1078-3) for small island developing states (SIDS). SIDS are a globally recognised ‘special’ case in terms of environment and sustainable development issues as they are disproportionately vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. While acknowledging that the choice of final indicators in the Berrang-Ford et al. (2014) assessment was primarily the function of the results of bivariate analyses with their Adaptation Initiatives Index and that there is no certainty of statistically significant relationships with any measure of adaptation initiatives, this paper proposes the inclusion of a number of predictor variables for a future SIDS-specific quantitative analysis. By doing this, this commentary helps to contribute a more nuanced understanding of potential national adaptation policy drivers in SIDS.

Sea level rise and extreme weather events threaten the livelihoods and possibly the long-term existence of whole island nations. While the media, policy, and often scientific arenas essentially focus their attention on Small Island Developing States (SIDS), which are widely recognised as hotspots of global climate change, the situation of the numerous other vulnerable island territories has been relatively neglected. As a result, the focus on SIDS has paved the way for mainstream adaptation research and, in turn, for biases in the interpretation of climate change vulnerability and risks of small islands in general. Here, we argue that such an overly narrow scope severely limits our understanding of island-specific issues that influence island societies’ adaptability to on-going and future climate change. This article reviews the current perspective on challenges and opportunities for climate change adaptation on SIDS and compares it with other types of island territories, especially dependent islands of continental states and semi-autonomous sub-national island jurisdictions (SNIJ). This comparison reveals that despite critical socio-political differences between the respective island types, more general lessons can be learned as island territories at large face similar issues both regarding the drivers of vulnerability and exposure and the adaptation measures needed. We propose an analytical framework for looking ‘beyond SIDS’ that includes the recognition of critical issues (asymmetrical governance structures, archipelagic constellations, inter-island connections) that shape island societies’ vulnerability and leeway for adaptation to climate-related hazards.

Coffee production has long been culturally and economically important in Puerto Rico. However, since peaking in the late nineteenth century, harvests are near record lows with many former farms abandoned. While value-added markets present new opportunities to reinvigorate the industry, regional trends associated with climate change may threaten the ability to produce high-quality coffee. Here, we discuss the history of coffee in Puerto Rico, outline important bioclimatic parameters, and model current and future habitat suitability using statistically downscaled climate data. Model projections suggest that warming trends may surpass important temperature thresholds during the coming decades. Under high (A2) and mid-low (A1B) emission scenarios for 2011–2040, Puerto Rico is projected to exceed mean annual temperature parameters for growth of Coffea arabica. Warming and drying trends may accelerate after 2040 and could result in top producing municipalities losing 60–84% of highly suitable growing conditions by 2070. Under the A2 scenario, Puerto Rico may only retain 24 km2 of highly suitable conditions by 2071–2099. High temperatures and low precipitation levels can result in diminished quality and yields, as well as increased exposure and sensitivity to certain insects and diseases. The climate data and models used are based on best current understanding of climate and emission interactions with results best interpreted as projected climate trends rather than predictions of future weather. Planning, innovation, and adaptation provide promising avenues to address current and future socioecological challenges while building a model of sustainable and resilient coffee production in Puerto Rico and throughout the region.

Small island developing states (SIDS) are among the first and worst affected by climate change. SIDS are thus also among the first to adapt, and as ‘early adaptors’ can provide key lessons for adaptation efforts elsewhere. This article reviews the growing literature on climate change, adaptation and small island states. It first discusses migration – which increasingly is seen as part of adaptation rather than a failure to adapt. Mobility has long been part of island life, and remittances can for example fund adaptation measures back home. Yet, adaptation in situ is not as forthcoming as would be necessary. The article identifies different barriers to effective adaptation, and discusses them under three distinct but interrelated categories: perceptions and awareness, institutions, and (lack of) resources. For effective, sustainable and successful adaptation, we need to overcome these barriers, and in particular provide information and resources to the local level. With appropriate information and resources, island communities can take and implement informed decisions and successfully adapt to a changing climate – as they have adjusted to social and environmental changes in the past.